Finding a border in baseball gambling can occasionally be tough and the majority of the time it results in a blown tire plus a complete yard sale. There are, though, a few trends that appear to stay accurate year in and year out and I have identified one in regard to NHL scoring that I think could be advantageous to TV ratings and, even more importantly, to a sportsbook account.
The tendency I’m talking of is that scoring goes up — way up — when teams get rest. Yesterday evening, the initial slate after the all-star game, was a microcosm of that as we saw that a total of 99 goals scored in 14 games. That’s over seven goals per game, and also an OVER/UNDER record of 11-2-1. That crazy night closed out a month that saw a significant growth in scoring which increased the NHL goals per match league average to 5.46 and saw teams post a 185-162-31 OVER/UNDER record — a six per cent increase in OVERs in the prior months.
A possible reason behind the increase in scoring is that the recently instituted bye weeks. The NHL realized that scoring began to dip in January due to the intense schedule its players were exposed to and wanted to do something to curb the tendency. It is a well-established actuality that if scoring goes down, so do evaluations, and this bye week is an easy way to acquire players rested a bit to provide that scoring the little boost it needs in the dog days of the NHL season without creating a basic change to the rule book. All these bye weeks will finish at the end of the month and that I believe that you will almost instantly see scoring go back down to normal.
A Couple of teams to target on the OVER right are the Wild, Capitals, Blackhawks, Penguins, Stars, Jets and Blues. During the month of January, those groups combined to get a 62-22-8 OVER/UNDER record and should only continue to do damage on the scoresheet within another month or so. 1 thing you may notice is that all these teams come in the Central and Metropolitan divisions. These are the two highest-scoring branches in hockey and it’s not near.
One thing to look out for is a change in NHL totals. Books are slow to adjust NHL lines and if they dothey likely already missed the tendency or are attempting to convince you to bet 1 way or another. When your publication starts throwing out totals of 6 and 6.5, err on the side of caution and possibly avoid those games altogether. Nevertheless, you should hammer the OVER whenever you see some of those teams I mentioned previously get a total of 5 5.5 until the present scoring trend stops.
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